The core objective of MATRIX project is to develop methods and tools to tackle multiple natural hazards in a common framework. This will allow future analysts to optimise the risk assessment process, will contribute to rationalising data management for hazards and vulnerability reduction.
The proposal addresses four major sub-objectives related to that core:
(1) To develop new methodologies for multi-type hazard and risk assessment, with focus on a: risk comparability; b: cascading hazards; c: time dependent vulnerability in the frame of conjoint or successive hazards.
In part (a), we will develop methods that will allow the quantitative comparison of individual risks from different natural hazard origins. In part (b), we will elaborate new approaches to the assessment of risks arising from “triggered” and induced events (also known as cascade events), such as earthquake- and meteorology-triggered landslides, induced seismicity or naturally triggered anthropogenic cascade effects. In part (c), we will develop a new multitype risk assessment methodology that can account for time-dependent vulnerability in the case of conjoint or successive hazards. This latter part becomes especially important when different types of extreme events closely follow each other, with the later ones hitting structures or communities whose vulnerability has been increased by the previous events’damage. Strong seismic aftershocks following a main shock, and interactions between floods and earthquakes, are good examples of this. We will integrate these new methodologies in a theoretical framework for consistent multirisk assessment, giving special consideration to spatial and time related scale differences in hazards, as well as to compounding uncertainty in multi-risk situations.
(2) To compare this new multi-hazard and multi-risk analytical framework with the state-of-the art in probabilistic single-risk analysis. In this piece of work, we will identify the conditions under which the new methodologies provide significantly different and better results from those obtained using tried-and-tested single-type hazard and risk analytical methods. Likewise, we will identify the conditions under which the new framework makes no major difference. This is important, because it will allow planners and policy-makers to concentrate their efforts at applying the new framework to those cases where it will bring measurably improved risk management results.
(3) To set up an information technology (IT) framework for test case analysis in a multi-risk approach. Here, we will develop IT infrastructure to perform and visualise multihazard and multi-risk analyses for test cases. This can then serve as a decision-support tool for multi-risk mitigation and adaptation. We will test the acceptability of such a tool, given the institutional constraints that may exist hindering its adoption, in the context of case study stakeholder consultation.
(4) To disseminate our results to multiple communities, so that they make an immediate difference. Our dissemination activities will on the one hand target the scientific and technological communities, on the other hand those disaster management communities where decisions about mitigation/adaptation measures are likely to be made. This will contribute not only to the improvement of risk assessment processes, but also to the development of more cost-effective risk reduction measures, with real benefits for European communities.
There is extensive work that has already been carried out – though mainly for single hazard/risk methodologies – in a number of national and international research projects, including several key projects supported by DG Research of the European Commission. A representative number of hazards being most relevant for Europe will be tackled by the project including earthquakes, landslides, volcano eruptions, tsunamis, river floods, winter storms, wildfire and coastal phenomena.
July 2010 – July 2013
European Union
Seventh Framework Programme
Area “Environment” (ENV.2010.1.3.4-1)