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Seismic-Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: An Integrated Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96, 2, 377–391, 2006
V. Convertito, A. Emolo andA. Zollo

Abstract

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. The latter is obtained from the statistical analysis of the synthetic waveform database produced for a large number of possible rupture histories occurring on the characteristic earthquake fault. The method has been applied to a hazard evaluation in the Umbria region, where the threat is represented by a fault having the same geometry and mechanism as the 26 September 1997, Colfiorito earthquake (central Italy; moment magnitude, Mw 6).

 

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*Notice: This is an electronic version of an article published in Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America: complete citation information for the final version of the paper, as published in the print edition of Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, is available on the  Seismological Society of America (SSA) online delivery service, accessible via the journal's website at http://www.seismosoc.org/publications/bssa.html